The example of the first great republic in recorded history (509 B.C. to 29 B.C.) was omnipresent in the minds of America’s founders as they created a new republic centuries later. As a consequence of their deliberations and, perhaps, the “protection of divine Providence” as written in the Declaration of Independence, the United States of America, in the mind of many of the founders, was intended to be the modern equivalent of the Roman Republic. The Roman Republic ended with the infamous assassination of Julius Caesar in 27 B.C..
Common Influences on the Founding of Each Society
While the facts of the founding of the Italian city Rome are shrouded in myth, the Roman Republic was established in 509 B.C. by the overthrow of the last Roman king (Lucius Tarquinius Superbus) and expulsion of the Etruscan theocratic government by the Latins, one of the three Italic tribes in central and southern Italy. Similarly, the “Republic for the United States of America” was birthed in a bloody revolution against the British King George more than 2,000 years later.According to historian Carl J. Richard in “Greeks & Romans Bearing Gifts: How the Ancients Inspired the Founding Fathers,” the earlier Roman Republic heavily influenced the founders of America who shared many common fears and hopes of the earlier architects of that Republic. These included the following:
- Fear of Centralized Authority. Having learned the lessons of despots and emperors, both societies attempted to establish checks and balances to avoid abuse of unchecked government power. The Romans replaced their king who served for life with a system of two consuls elected by citizens for an annual term. America’s founders created the executive, legislative, and judicial branches to diffuse potential power and abuse.
- Open Societies. Rome welcomed other people – particularly its vanquished enemies – into Roman citizenship, even accepting the gods of the newcomers. Likewise, America has long been recognized as a “melting pot.”
- Selfless Leadership. Rooted in agrarian societies, commitment to family and mutual citizen interdependence were basic in each society. Cincinnatus, a Roman farmer, saved the republic from invading Aequi tribes in 458 B.C. and again in 439 B.C. when a conspiracy threatened the government. In both cases, he was named dictator, but shortly thereafter resigned his commission to return to farming. George Washington, a Virginia farmer who led the fight against the British, resigned after his second term as president to return to his Virginia estate. Both men are examples of leaders who put the needs of their country before their personal interests.
he Latin sayings Annuit coeptis (“He approves of the undertaking”) and Novus ordo Seclorum (“A new order of the ages’) are above and below the unfinished pyramid on the one dollar bill. The American founders clearly desired to emulate the best elements of the Roman Republic in the new republic, while avoiding the excesses that led its transformation into the Roman Empire.
James Madison in particular worried that the intemperance and extravagance of the later Roman Empire might also emerge in the new nation. As a consequence, the fourth president was adamant that the country was not like Rome. Writing in the Federalist paper No. 63, he declared that the example of the government during the period of the Roman empire, especially the Senate, was “unfit for the imitation, as they are repugnant to the genius of America.”
Parallels Between the Republics
Despite the efforts of some American leaders to set a different course than that experienced by the Roman Republic, an analysis of the two is inevitable. Cullen Murphy, former managing editor of “The Atlantic” and current editor-at-large of “Vanity Fair,” identified numerous similarities between the two civilizations in his 2007 book “Are We Rome?”- Global Influence and Dominance. Both societies were the preeminent entities in their worlds including “hard” power (military might and economic power) and “soft” power (language, culture, commerce, technology and ideas). Their dominant stature is taken for granted within their own societies and the world at large.
- Solipsism. Americans have long believed that they are the straw that stirs the drink with qualities and abilities superior to other countries. In ancient days, all roads led to Rome, the center of the Ancient World – or so Roman citizens believed. Publius Cornelius Tacitus claimed that even “things atrocious and shameless flock from all parts to Rome.” According to Murphy, “Both see themselves as chosen people and both see their national character as exceptional.”
- Political Corruption. Like America today, politicians in the Roman Republic had difficulty differentiating between public and private responsibilities and public and private resources. As a consequence, public services declined while the pockets of the public officials and their patrician sponsors grew large at the expense of common citizens. Numerous reforms were attempted to curb excesses, but were resisted by the ruling patrician class, echoing the partisan battles in American government today.
- Foreign Wars. For the past century, America has been preoccupied with war, either fighting a war, recovering from a war, or preparing for a war. The list includes World War I (1917-1918), World War II (1941-1945), the Cold War (1947-1991), the Korean War (1950-1953), the Vietnam War (1954-1975), the Gulf War (1990-1991), Afghanistan (2001- ?), and Iraq (2003-2011). The list does not include the continuous fight against domestic and foreign terrorism. As a consequence, domestic problems lack attention and priority. The Roman wars include the initial overthrow of the King followed by 50 years of battle to subjugate the southern peninsula of Italy. Over the next four centuries, they repelled numerous Celtic invasions from the north and fought three Samnite Wars (343-282 B.C.), the Pyrrhic War (280-275 B.C.), the Punic Wars (274-148 B.C.), four Macedonian wars (215-148 B.C.), and the Jugurthine War (111-104 B.C.). These battles do not include numerous barbarian invasions, slave rebellions, and regular skirmishes with pirates who continuously threatened trade routes on which the republic depended.
- Collapse of the Middle Class. The Roman middle class was crushed by cheap overseas slave labor; the rising income inequality due to technological change and the transfer of jobs to overseas labor threatens the middle class of America today.
- Loss of Political Compromise. Just as Republicans and Democrats are focused on political gain rather than the public good, the inability of the opposing political parties of the Roman Republic – Optimates (aristocrats) and Populares (populists) – to work together led to the imposition of Caesar as dictator and the end of the Republic.
Most economists project that America’s supremacy in the world will be lost by the mid-21st century to the countries of China, India, and Brazil.
Are Comparisons of Ancient Rome and Modern America Valid?
Dr. Joseph Tainter, an American anthropologist and author of “The Collapse of Complex Societies,” theorized that advanced, complex, and technically sophisticated societies such as modern America, the British Empire, and the Roman Republic inevitably collapse due to the inability of the resource base to sustain the society. The lack of sufficient resources to meet everyone’s wants and needs invariably stimulates internal strife, class warfare, and political division. Modern issues of this include:- The country is less a melting pot today, but a stew of competing ethnic, racial, and social divisions
- National, state, and local debt loads are unsustainable
- Our elementary and secondary educational system ranks behind many of the other industrialized countries, even as the costs of a post-secondary education require students to assume thousands of dollars in personal student loan debt
- Our national infrastructure – roads and bridges – is falling apart from neglect and lack of maintenance even as our electronic infrastructure lags many of our international competitors
- Our healthcare system is the most expensive in the world, but mediocre by many world standards
- Political corruption is rife and influence is based by the size of financial donation to the political party and candidate
- Many political observers believe that in the era of rampant partisanship, America’s system of checks and balances in government is no longer operative
- The growing disparity income inequality creates class tension and social stress
Differences Between the Republics
Further, historians and economists note a plethora of significant differences between the Roman and American Republics, including:- Role of Technology. Rome’s entire existence was limited to the Iron Age where tools and weapons were primarily of the metal iron. Furthermore, the society was entirely agrarian, and the political system was simple and nascent. The Romans adopted technologies from their subject territories and were heavily dependent upon imports. By contrast, America was a leader of the Industrial Age, extended its leadership through the Information Age, and appears to be the leader of the Biotech Age. Some scientists believe that technological advances – led by nanotechnology and robotics – will create a new era of abundance, replacing the historical and dominant economic model of scarcity.
- Democracy. While Rome had a Republic, political power rested solely in the hands of the patricians, a small percentage of the educated, wealthy, and powerful in the general population. As Murphy admits, “Even at its most democratic, Rome was not remotely as democratic as America at its least democratic under the British monarchy.”
- Entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurs are respected members of American society. Neither the Roman Republic nor the Roman Empire had a similar class of citizens. As a consequence, America is a hothouse of creativity and innovation while engineering breakthroughs of the older Roman society were limited.
- Social Equality. While America is seeing a widening gap between haves and have-nots, it still is far less glaring than that of the Roman Republic.
But while the U.S. is the world's only current superpower,
pronouncements of its Rome-like fall are greatly exaggerated and not
entirely appropriate. Here's why:
1. Political Instability Is Here but the U.S. Is Still a Republic
The period we know as the time of the Roman Empire actually followed another nearly 500-year block when it was the democratic Roman Republic (509
BC - 27 BC). A period of unrest and civil wars precipitated the
transition to the empire. This is when the infamous assassination of
Julius Caesar took place in 44 BCE. After a power struggle that followed
Caesar’s demise, Augustus (Caesar’s nephew) was crowned as Rome’s first
emperor. More or less effective emperors followed, with much internal
intrigue and corruption that led to coups and assassinations. The
infamous Caligula (12-41 AD) was killed by the Praetorian Guard, while
the corrupt and mad Nero (37-68 AD) committed suicide.
The U.S. is certainly undergoing a period of political
upheaval, with the country often split on major issues and animosity
rising between different sides. The election of Donald Trump both
increased the divide and is a symptom of it. Still, the U.S. is a
democratic society, with checks and balances, and Trump is no emperor.
It is also not the first time in recent history the
country dealt with divisive issues, with the civil rights struggle and
Vietnam War being quite contemporary events (especially from a
historical perspective). The country has survived more turmoil, and
barring unprecedented measures from the new administration and
ineffectiveness of other branches of the government, the U.S. is poised
to continue with its political system relatively healthy and
functioning.
The Roman Empire in 117 AD during the reign of emperor Trajan. Credit: Tataryn
2. The Economy Needs Work but Is in No Danger of Collapse
Rome was engaged in regular wars and constantly overspent to keep protecting the borders of its huge empire. But eventually the expansion slowed due to stronger opponents and even pirates like Vandals
operating in North Africa. This dwindled the supply of cheap slave
labor and additional taxes. Roman rich also worked just as hard back in
their time to pay less taxes, creating an increasing gap between the
wealthy and the poor. Historians also point to a trade imbalance that
eventually grew between Rome and China and India. These factors led to a
slowing economy and a decline in Roman power.
The U.S. economy is not dependent on colonies or slave
labor, but the rising inequality between the rich and the poor, and the
resulting political repercussions and unrest are certainly here to stay.
The emergence of Donald Trump, who capitalized politically on the job
losses in the manufacturing industry and fear of job-taking immigrants,
as well as the need for foreign trade reform, points to just how much
Americans are worried about the future of their country’s economy.
Still, despite Trump’s rhetoric, the unemployment is low
and the country’s steady, if unimpressive, annual GDP growth rate of
about 2% point to the fact that the economy is not in such shambles as
to predict an imminent collapse. The military spending in the U.S. has
been hovering around 3-4% of the GDP, a sizable but not unusual amount, comparable to other world powers.
3. The Military Situation Is Vastly Different
After fighting off all challengers for centuries, Rome’s
military power waned and it was finally overtaken by a series of
military losses to Germanic tribes, including the sacking of Rome in 410
by the Visigoth King Alaric, and another sacking by the Visigoths led
by Geiseric in 455. In 476, the Germanic warrior Odoacer led a revolt
from within that deposed the Emperor Romulus Augustulus, making him the
last Roman emperor to rule Italy from Rome. The Eastern part of the
Empire actually survived until 1453 CE, when Constantinople fell to the
Ottoman Turks.
The U.S. has powerful military opponents like Russia and
China, but an all-out conflict involving any of the nuclear powers seems
highly unlikely due to mutually assured destruction. However,
asymmetrical warfare like terror attacks by Islamic fundamentalists or
cyberattacks and subterfuge from Russia can cause more gradual decline
in American power due to weakening confidence in its leaders and
institutions. Still, this is not likely to result in a serious military
loss unless a more direct confrontation takes place, which at this point
seems impossible. So the world’s most powerful military should keep
America intact for the time being.
The Emperor Nero commits suicide with his own sword
after the Roman army overruns the city, 9th June 68 AD. (Photo by Hulton
Archive/Getty Images)
4. U.S. Is Not in a Cultural and Social Decline
This point is certainly debatable as some would argue the
U.S. is undergoing a weakening of its values. The country is
transforming from a Christian and white-majority nation into an
ever-more multicultural melting pot. Interestingly, some like the
historian Edward Gibbon, in his seminal “The History of the Decline and
Fall of the Roman Empire,” have pointed to the adoption of Christianity
and its weakening of traditional Roman values as the reason for the
empire’s eventual collapse.
Others have blamed
the overspending and dumbing down of Rome via gladiator games and
debauchery via crazed emperors like Nero for its decline. This, of
course, makes an easy parallel to America's preoccupation with sports
and reality tv stars, with the left painting Trump as a latter-day Nero.
On the other hand, it can easily be argued that these types of
entertainments and politics are nothing new historically and can be
found in any century. As if they didn't have Kardashian-type subjects of
everyone's gossip in Renaissance-era Florence of the ruthless Medicis
and the Borgias.
While the U.S. is undergoing transformation, with social
changes like the adoption of gay rights, and rapid technological changes
via the internet and automation, there’s little reason to point to some
kind of major worsening of society. It’s more likely that it’s changing
and adapting appropriately, in step with the rest of the Western
civilization.
5. Technology, Not Politics Will Transform the U.S. (And the World)
With so much attention focused on the political strife,
the lasting changes to America and its power are not likely to come from
invading barbarian hordes. The coming world of complete automation,
major life-extending medical advances and space exploration will
transform the U.S. in ways the Roman Empire never experienced. The
Romans did employ and advance the technology of the day but their life
was not upended because all the jobs were suddenly staffed by robots,
something likely to happen within this century.
How technology changes America and the political entities around the world will not be clear until the singularity
hits. Perhaps the battle by President Trump and his ideologues against
“globalism” which has a strong anti-intellectual and anti-technology
component, is a last ditch effort to fight back against what is really a
war that’s already lost.
Still, the political is not to be discounted. As this passage
from Gibbon’s “The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire”
shows, we have reason to look at Roman history for warnings:
“The provinces, long oppressed by the ministers of the republic, sighed for the government of a single person, who would be the master, not the accomplice, of those petty tyrants. The people of Rome, viewing, with a secret pleasure, [Augustus’] humiliation of the aristocracy, demanded only bread and public shows; and were supplied with both by the liberal hand of Augustus. The rich and polite Italians, who had almost universally embraced the philosophy of Epicurus, enjoyed the present blessings of ease and tranquility, and suffered not the pleasing dream to be interrupted by the memory of their old tumultuous freedom.”
Pax Romana, the period of relative peace at the height of Roman power lasted about 200 years. We are over 70 years into Pax Americana (from the end of WW II). How long we can make it last is still up to us.